Summary
The Strait of Hormuz crisis has already disrupted fertilizer, energy, and shipping markets. History shows these costs can continue moving through the food supply chain long after the initial event, affecting crop production, food manufacturing, and grocery prices months or even years later.
Key Takeaways
- The Strait of Hormuz crisis has already disrupted fertilizer, energy, and shipping markets.
- Higher fertilizer costs can affect crop production long before grocery prices rise.
- History shows the biggest supply chain impacts often come after the headlines fade.
- Food prices can continue rising months or years after a major disruption ends.
- Building an emergency food supply early helps reduce the impact of delayed food price increases.
Where the Strait of Hormuz Crisis Stands Now
Nearly six months in, the strait is still choked off, with Iranian attacks keeping most ships out.
But the mood shifted this week.
U.S. and Middle East officials say they're supposedly closing in on a deal to reopen it—ships entering the Persian Gulf past Iran, exiting past Oman.
On August 4, Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said a deal could land by midweek, with "freedom of movement" through the strait. [1]
Markets moved fast. Oil dropped below $80 a barrel, down from over $100 at the height of the war. [1]
But relief in the oil price isn't relief everywhere.
Bessent himself pointed past oil to fertilizer, refined products, and industrial gases. [2]
Those don't recover the moment a ship clears the strait—and hundreds of vessels are still stuck in the Gulf waiting to move.
The damage that matters was done in the months the strait sat closed…
- Fertilizer that priced out of reach.
- Planting decisions already locked in.
- Freight and energy bills already paid.
Reopening the strait can't take any of that back.
Those costs don't vanish. They move downstream — into farms, into harvests, into the price of food.
The last time an energy chokepoint seized up like this, the grocery-store bill didn't land for more than a year.
What Damage Has Already Been Done to Fertilizer?
Modern farming runs on fertilizer—and nitrogen fertilizer is made largely from natural gas.
The Persian Gulf is a major source of those crop nutrients.
According to North Dakota State University's analysis of S&P Global Trade Atlas data, Persian Gulf countries account for roughly 43% of seaborne urea exports, about 44% of seaborne sulfur trade, and more than a quarter of global ammonia exports. [3] The Gulf also supplies roughly 23% of global DAP (phosphate) exports. [4]
Sulfur is easy to overlook, but it's a key ingredient in producing phosphate fertilizer.
A sulfur squeeze can choke off phosphate fertilizer even when the phosphate rock itself is sitting right there.
When the Strait closed, fertilizer prices reacted almost overnight.
By March 13, Middle East granular urea had climbed 38.8%, from below $500 per metric ton to $680. [5]
Global seaborne dry-bulk fertilizer shipments then fell 19% year over year in May, largely because of lower loadings from the Persian Gulf. [6]
That's fertilizer that never moved through its normal channels—tightening supply for farmers and importers alike.
And it reached American soil fast.
By mid-April, U.S. retail urea was up 41.1% from the week of February 16, while anhydrous ammonia was up 29.2%. [7]
A separate University of Illinois analysis put anhydrous ammonia at $1,123 per ton by April 17, up from a prewar average of $828. [8]
For a corn farmer, higher nitrogen prices added roughly $30 to $55 per acre—the value of about 7 to 13 bushels of corn per acre at the time. [7]
That leaves a grower with hard choices: pay more, apply less, plant fewer fertilizer-hungry crops, or absorb the loss.
None of those choices grows the food supply.
A survey of more than 5,700 producers by the American Farm Bureau Federation found that 70% said they couldn't afford all the fertilizer they needed—a signal of just how severe the strain has become. [9]
Fertilizer that missed its application window this season can't simply be made up later. The acreage and application decisions for this crop are already set.
Many farmers also prepurchased fertilizer before the conflict, which cushioned part of the 2026 crop.
That's exactly why economists warn the full cost won't land until 2027.
Why Haven't Grocery Prices Caught Up Yet?
Food travels a long road before it reaches your table.
First, fertilizer gets more expensive or harder to find.
Then farmers make their planting and application decisions.
Months later, crops come out of the ground.
Those crops become flour, cooking oil, animal feed, and thousands of packaged products—and only then does the cost reach the register.
The United Nations Food and Agriculture Organization warned that fertilizer scarcity could cut yields and tighten food supplies through the second half of 2026 and into 2027. [10]
It's already flickering. The FAO Cereal Price Index rose 2.6% in May and sat nearly 5% above a year earlier. [11]
The FAO tied that increase to higher fuel and fertilizer costs and to weather—not the conflict alone. [11]
The crisis didn't cause every price increase.
It stacked another major cost onto a food system that was already under pressure.
We've Watched This Delay Play Out Before
This lag isn't a guess. We've lived through it, almost step for step.
The 1973–74 Arab oil embargo lasted about five months. Oil prices doubled, then quadrupled. [12]
The visible effects hit fast—shortages, long lines, and higher gas.
The deeper effects took far longer, moving through transportation, farming, and manufacturing before landing in consumer prices.
A February 1974 USDA report warned that fertilizer would cost farmers 50% more and flagged natural-gas shortages as a threat to fertilizer production. [13]
Energy shock, then fertilizer shock, then food. The same chain we're watching right now.
And like today, the embargo wasn't the only force at work—crop failures, monetary policy, and global demand all pushed prices higher too. [14]
The lesson isn't that history repeats on schedule.
It's that the disruption can end long before the consequences do.
What Else Could Still Hit?
Fertilizer is the clearest delayed threat, but it isn't the only one.
Packaging and everyday goods. The Gulf also ships petrochemical feedstocks like naphtha and LPG—the raw materials behind the plastics used in packaging, textiles, and consumer goods. [15] Factories draw down inventory first, so shortages and price bumps can surface later.
Electricity and heating. Damage to Gulf liquefied natural gas facilities has cut supply. The International Energy Agency estimates that short-term losses and slower expansion could remove a cumulative 120 billion cubic meters of LNG from 2026 through 2030, delaying the expected easing of the gas market by at least two years. [16] Higher gas prices also throttle ammonia and urea production outside the Gulf—because natural gas is the feedstock for nitrogen fertilizer. That loops straight back to your food.
Shipping and insurance. Reopening the waterway won't restart trade overnight. Ships have to return, coverage has to be rewritten, and port backlogs have to clear. A broad International Monetary Fund study of past shipping disruptions—not a Hormuz forecast—found that an extra 100 hours of transit time can raise inflation by about half a percentage point at its peak, roughly five months later. [17]
How to Prepare Before the Second Wave Hits
You can't reopen the Strait of Hormuz, but you can lower how much your family's table depends on it.
- Build a reserve of long-term emergency food now, before higher farm costs reach the shelf. Sealed and stored right, it keeps for years—so it's there whether the squeeze lasts months or longer.
- Stock the everyday staples you already cook with—rice, beans, sugar, flour—and rotate them so nothing goes to waste.
- Grow what you can, and keep properly stored heirloom seeds for next season.
- Build real relationships with local farmers, ranchers, and food producers. (Here's how to build a local supply chain from the ground up.)
- Keep fuel, water, medicine, and essential household supplies from running dangerously low.
Preparedness isn't about calling the exact price of fertilizer or the date of the next shortage.
It's about recognizing that today's disruption becomes tomorrow's empty space on a shelf.
Remember, friends. The first shock makes headlines.
The second one reaches your home.
Prepare before it does.
If grocery prices climbed another 20% this year, which staple would you want the deepest reserve of? Tell me in the comments.
In liberty,
Elizabeth Anderson
Preparedness Advisor, My Patriot Supply
Sources
[1] Washington Times.Strait Talk: U.S. and Regional Partners See Progress Toward Reopening Hormuz Choke Point.
August 4, 2026.
https://www.washingtontimes.com/news/2026/aug/4/strait-talk-us-regional-partners-see-progress-toward-reopening-hormuz/
[2] CNBC.Bessent Says There May Be a Deal Tuesday or Wednesday to Open Strait of Hormuz with "Freedom of Movement."
August 4, 2026.
https://www.cnbc.com/2026/08/04/bessent-says-there-may-be-deal-tuesday-or-wednesday-to-open-strait-of-hormuz-with-freedom-of-movement.html
[3] North Dakota State University, Center for Agricultural Policy and Trade Studies.Breaking Down the March 2026 NDSU Agricultural Trade Monitor: The Strait of Hormuz Closure and Global Fertilizer Trade Disruptions.
March 2026.
https://www.capts-ndsu.com/post/breaking-down-the-march-2026-ndsu-agricultural-trade-monitor-the-strait-of-hormuz-closure-and-globa
[4] International Food Policy Research Institute.How Fertilizer Policies Could Exacerbate Hormuz Price Shocks.
May 22, 2026.
https://www.ifpri.org/blog/how-fertilizer-policies-could-exacerbate-hormuz-price-shocks/
[5] S&P Global Commodity Insights.Middle East Fertilizer Shock Tightens Spring Nutrient Supply.
March 16, 2026.
https://www.spglobal.com/energy/en/news-research/latest-news/agriculture/031626-infographic-middle-east-fertilizer-shock-tightens-spring-nutrient-supply
[6] Hellenic Shipping News.Fresh Gulf Sulfur Loadings Expected to Lag Despite Hormuz Reopening.
July 2026.
https://www.hellenicshippingnews.com/fresh-gulf-sulfur-loadings-expected-to-lag-despite-hormuz-reopening/
[7] University of Illinois farmdoc daily.Middle East Ceasefire Fails to Ease U.S. Fertilizer Price Pressure on Farmers.
April 24, 2026.
https://farmdocdaily.illinois.edu/2026/04/middle-east-ceasefire-fails-to-ease-u-s-fertilizer-price-pressure-on-farmers.html
[8] University of Illinois farmdoc daily.Fertilizer Cost Increases Resulting from the Iran Conflict.
May 5, 2026.
https://farmdocdaily.illinois.edu/2026/05/fertilizer-cost-increases-resulting-from-the-iran-conflict.html
[9] American Farm Bureau Federation.Nationwide Survey: Most Farmers Can't Afford Fertilizer.
April 14, 2026.
https://www.fb.org/news-release/nationwide-survey-most-farmers-cant-afford-fertilizer
[10] Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations.Strait of Hormuz Crisis: Fertilizer Scarcity Will Affect Next Harvests and Food Supplies, FAO Warns.
May 7, 2026.
https://www.fao.org/newsroom/detail/strait-of-hormuz-crisis--fertilizer-scarcity-will-affect-next-harvests-and-food-supplies--fao-warns/
[11] Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations.FAO Food Price Index Broadly Stable in May Even as Cereal Quotations Increase.
June 5, 2026.
https://www.fao.org/newsroom/detail/fao-food-price-index-broadly-stable-in-may-even-as-cereal-quotations-increase/en
[12] U.S. Department of State, Office of the Historian.Oil Embargo, 1973–1974. https://history.state.gov/milestones/1969-1976/oil-embargo
[13] U.S. Department of Agriculture.The Farm Index.
February 13, 1974.
https://esmis.nal.usda.gov/usda-esmis/files/3t945q772/2b88qg92x/s4655k55b/TFI-02-13-1974.pdf
[14] Federal Reserve History.Oil Shock of 1973–74. https://www.federalreservehistory.org/essays/oil-shock-of-1973-74
[15] World Economic Forum.Beyond Oil: 9 Commodities Impacted by the Strait of Hormuz Crisis.
April 2026.
https://www.weforum.org/stories/2026/04/beyond-oil-lng-commodities-impacted-closure-hormuz-strait/
[16] International Energy Agency.Gas Market Report, Q2-2026: Executive Summary.
2026.
https://www.iea.org/reports/gas-market-report-q2-2026/executive-summary
[17] International Monetary Fund.From Ports to Prices: The Inflationary Effects of Global Supply Chain Disruptions.
Working Paper No. 2026/026, February 13, 2026.
https://www.imf.org/en/publications/wp/issues/2026/02/13/from-ports-to-prices-the-inflationary-effects-of-global-supply-chain-disruptions-573975
