Summary
A quiet start to hurricane season does not mean the danger has passed. History shows how quickly conditions can change—and why a slow start is no reason to let your guard down.
Why a Quiet Hurricane Season Can Be Misleading
September 10 is the climatological peak of Atlantic hurricane activity, with most Atlantic tropical cyclone activity occurring between mid-August and mid-October. [1]
The U.S. landfall record shows just how much can still happen from here.
Since Atlantic hurricane records began in 1851, 105 hurricanes have made direct continental U.S. landfall during September, including 40 major hurricanes.
October has produced another 55, including 17 major hurricanes. [2]
So early September is not late in the hurricane season.
An average season doesn't even reach its second major hurricane until around September 19, and its fifth hurricane typically doesn't form until around September 28. [1]
That matters this year because the Atlantic has been pretty quiet.
So far this season, the Atlantic has produced 5 named storms—3 of which already reached U.S. shores, including Tropical Storm Edouard, which hit Louisiana just a few days ago.
Yet zero hurricanes. Zero major hurricanes.
And according to NOAA, total accumulated cyclone energy is sitting 89% below normal. [3]
Numbers like that are exactly what convince people to stop paying attention.
But a relatively quiet start is not a reason to let your guard down.
The season is far from over.
2022 Hurricane Season Was Quiet. Then Ian Hit.
Four years ago, the Atlantic told a similar story.
NOAA described the 2022 season as having a rare mid-season pause, with an unusually quiet August.
Then, activity surged in September, with 7 named storms forming that month, including both major hurricanes of the entire season. [4]
One of them was Ian.
It formed on September 23 as a tropical depression east-northeast of Aruba. [5]
Five days later, the picture looked very different.
By September 28, Ian had rapidly intensified to Category 5 strength over the Gulf before making landfall in southwest Florida that same day as a Category 4 hurricane.
Ian was responsible for more than 150 direct and indirect deaths and caused over $112 billion in damage, making it the third-costliest hurricane in U.S. history. [5]
Storm surge along the southwest Florida coast reached 10 to 15 feet above ground level in some areas, and the freshwater flooding that followed inland was described by NOAA as historic. [5]
August had been quiet. By the end of September, Florida was dealing with one of the costliest hurricanes in U.S. history.
History Has Done This Before
Destructive hurricanes arriving in September are nothing new.
Hurricane Beulah - 1967
Beulah's official track began on September 5, when a tropical depression had just formed near the Windward Islands.
Over the following 2 weeks, it went through several cycles of strengthening and weakening.
It eventually reached Category 5 intensity over the Gulf.
On September 20, it struck the Texas-Mexico border region, bringing major-hurricane conditions into South Texas. [6]
The storm dropped 15 to 25 inches of rain across South Texas, with isolated totals near 30 inches.
It spawned roughly 115 tornadoes, setting a record at the time for a single tropical system. [6]
15 people died in Texas from the storm's effects.
Florida Keys–Texas Hurricane - 1919
On September 10, 1919, a major hurricane tore through the Florida Keys with winds near 150 mph.
It didn't stop there.
The system crossed the Gulf and struck again near Corpus Christi on September 14, retaining major-hurricane strength for its second landfall. [7]
Roughly 772 deaths were attributed to the storm, the majority from ships that sank at sea during the crossing. [7]
Record-keeping from that era was far less complete than it is today, without satellites, radar, or routine aircraft reconnaissance to track a storm's full life cycle.
Even with those limitations, the scale of the disaster is clear.
A Quiet Start to Hurricane Season Can Still Produce One Bad Storm
Season-wide statistics describe how active the Atlantic has been overall.
They don't tell you whether the next storm will reach your coast.
A season can start quietly and still produce the one hurricane that causes massive devastation.
That is the problem with treating a low storm count as an all clear.
Your family is not affected by the season's final statistics.
You're affected by the storm that reaches you.
Ian made that distinction painfully clear.
August had been unusually quiet. Ian made landfall in Florida before September was over.
Low activity so far and low personal risk are not the same thing.
Nobody is predicting a repeat of 2022 this year, and nobody credibly can.
The point is not that 2026 will follow the same path.
History simply shows that a quiet start does not rule out what can happen later.
Use the Quiet While You Have It
Before a storm is headed your way, there are concrete steps worth taking while there's no pressure attached to them:
- Know your evacuation zone, and map out more than one route.
- Check your food, water, medications, batteries, and pet supplies.
- Test your generator now, before you need it in the dark.
- Confirm you can actually receive local emergency alerts.
- Photograph your home and important belongings for insurance purposes.
- Review your insurance policy and understand your deductibles.
- Store important documents somewhere protected and easy to grab.
- Put a family communication plan in writing.
Handling these now means doing it on your own schedule, instead of competing with everyone else once a storm has a name and a forecast cone.
If your area lost power and water access for a week starting tomorrow, would your household actually be ready? Let us know in the comments.
In liberty,
Elizabeth Anderson
Preparedness Advisor, My Patriot Supply
Frequently Asked Questions
When is the peak of Atlantic hurricane season?
September 10 is the climatological peak of Atlantic hurricane activity. Most activity occurs between mid-August and mid-October. Historically, some dangerous hurricanes have developed or made landfall during September.
Can a quiet hurricane season suddenly become active?
Yes. A quiet start does not guarantee the rest of hurricane season will remain quiet. In 2022, the Atlantic experienced an unusually quiet August before seven named storms formed in September. Hurricane Ian formed September 23 and struck southwest Florida as a Category 4 hurricane on September 28.
How late can hurricanes hit the United States?
Hurricanes can strike the continental United States well into the fall. Since 1851, 105 hurricanes have made direct continental U.S. landfall in September and another 55 in October. Of those, 40 September hurricanes and 17 October hurricanes were major hurricanes.
How much emergency food should I have for a hurricane?
Start with enough shelf-stable emergency food for everyone in your household to get through several days without grocery access. Consider longer-term supplies if hurricanes in your area could cause extended power outages, flooding, road closures, or disruptions to local stores.
How much water and backup power should I plan for during hurricane season?
Plan for enough stored drinking water to cover your household for at least several days without running tap water, since municipal systems can lose pressure or become contaminated during and after a storm. A backup power source, such as a solar generator, can keep essentials like refrigeration, medical devices, and communication running through extended outages without relying on fuel that may be hard to find once a storm has already hit.
Sources
[1] National Hurricane Center.Tropical Cyclone Climatology. NOAA. https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/climo/
[2] NOAA AOML.Continental United States Hurricane Impacts/Landfalls, 1851–2025. Revised March 2026. https://www.aoml.noaa.gov/hrd/hurdat/All_U.S._Hurricanes.html?print=yes
[3] National Hurricane Center.2026 Atlantic Hurricane Season. NOAA, updated September 1, 2026. https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/data/tcr/index.php?basin=atl&season=2026
[4] NOAA NESDIS.The 2022 Atlantic Hurricane Season Comes to a Close. December 2, 2022. https://www.nesdis.noaa.gov/news/the-2022-atlantic-hurricane-season-comes-close
[5] National Hurricane Center.Hurricane Ian Tropical Cyclone Report (AL092022). NOAA, revised March 12, 2026. https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/data/tcr/AL092022_Ian.pdf?unit=m
[6] National Weather Service, Corpus Christi.Major Hurricane Beulah — September 20, 1967. https://www.weather.gov/crp/Beulah
[7] NOAA AOML.95th Anniversary of the Great Florida Keys Hurricane. September 9, 2014. https://www.aoml.noaa.gov/hurricane_blog/95th-annversary-of-the-great-florida-keys-hurricane/
